Brett Lawrie: A Costly Promotion.

Well Blue Jays fans, he will make his MLB and Blue Jays debut tomorrow. The 21-year old third baseman, a native of Canada has been tearing up AAA Las Vegas this year. He was hitting .353/.415/.661 with 18 home runs and 24 doubles in only 69 games. Keep in mind, Lawrie was hitting in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, though. His defense at third has shown signs of improvement and last week I saw him make a few good plays a third. A lot of pressure has been put on Lawrie, especially since Jayson Nix and Edwin Encarnacion (earlier in the year) were playing horrible defense at third and were hitting below .200 combined. There has been a lot of expectations on this kid (am I allowed to call him kid, he is four days older than me?) and please do not expect him to be the savior. I expect him to hit 7^th in the lineup and play a decent third base. I want to make it clear that I am absolutely ecstatic to see him get the call and wish him the best of luck. I am glad the Blue Jays did not rush him, as ironically the demoted player in this transaction was rushed to the big leagues.

On the flipside, the promotion cost Travis Snider his job. Snider has been demoted back to AAA nearly a month after his promotion. It’s disappointing to see him get such a short leash, as I thought he would have been here until the end of the season so the Blue Jays get a better look at him. Snider has not played more than 2 months in the big leagues without being disrupted by a demotion or an injury. Now as much as Snider has struggled lately, Eric Thames has been as bad lately, though his great start masks his recent struggles. Travis Snider has been 6 for his last 46 but Thames is currently 8 for his last 46. Since the All Star game, Eric Thames has been hitting .234/.271/.406.

Since the second call up of Thames, many have written off Snider as a bust, even though many scouts still think he does have 5-tool potential. Snider has clearly shown us in his speed, range and arm and a glimpse of his fourth tool, power. Snider has had a rough ride in the major leagues. People must remember that Snider was drafted in 2006 out of high school, not college. If he had decided to go to college, he would have been drafted in 2009, that’s a year after Eric Thames (drafted in 2008). If Snider would have been drafted in 2009, he would have probably made his major league debut in 2011, thus it is normal to see him struggling. To make matters worse, Snider’s route to the MLB has not been easy. He was promoted to the big leagues one year early, where he struggled and was yo-yoed between Las Vegas and Toronto. The following year, he got off to a cold start but just as he was heating up, he injured his wrist and was placed on the disabled list for two and a half months. Upon his return, Cito Gaston wisely decided to platoon him with current Reds fourth outfielder Fred Lewis. Did I mention he was the lead off hitter when Lewis was not playing? Finally, in September, Snider started getting regular playing time and thus, started heating up, though the hitting barrage was cut short as the season came to an end. After such a tumultuous season, Snider managed to play in 82 games, and hit 14 home runs (evidence of power). It is imperative that Snider gets regular playing time for the rest of the season so the Blue Jays can better understand if Snider is truly going to be a great hitter or just a AAAA player. It is unfair to pull the plug on the guy after one month. After all, Snider has always been a slow starter as it took him a month and a half to finally heat up in 2010. 

Eric Thames got off to a great start in his second go round with big league team. However, Thames has cooled off since the All Star game and now has been dropped in the lineup since Rasmus was acquired. Thames features 2 tools at best, power and hitting for average. He is not a great defensively, possess a weak arm and is the slowest outfielder of five the Blue Jays have. Thames has what many scouts would say as ‘holes’ in his swing as he strikes out too many times and does not compensate the fact by drawing a steady diet of walks.

I was annoyed by the demotion of Snider, but the reasoning was even more hysterical. Alex Anthopoulos suggested that the demotion was going to be in between Thames or Snider and if in ten days Thames continues to struggles, he will be demoted to AAA Las Vegas and Snider will be back up. So why could not the Blue Jays wait one week to make a decision and prevent Snider form being demoted in the first place? It’s not like the team is competing for a playoff spot and is dire need of a third baseman. Jose Bautista has done a great job filling in at third and it would have given the Blue Jays a week to observe Thames’ play to determine if he or Snider merits a demotion. Was it because Anthopoulos wanted Lawrie to make his debut on the road? Anthopoulos has done some great things while he has been the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays (click here for evidence), but this move is a real head-scratcher. If he really wanted Lawrie to be up, I would have demoted Thames instead of Snider. The Blue Jays are running out of time on Snider, as he will be out of options next year. The Blue Jays have plenty of time to determine what Thames might become, though many scouts are not sold on him, too. I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays trade Snider in the off-season, though it would not be the wisest option considering he is at his lowest value.

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached at salamathematician@gmail.com and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.

Future Lineup?

Last week, the Blue Jays acquired a big piece that helps them toward their rebuild to a championship team. The addition of Colby Rasmus will now force a current Blue Jay to lose his job. It can be concluded that Yunel Escobar, Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia have secured their spots in the lineup at SS, CF, RF, 1B and C respectively. That leaves four other spots (2B, 3B, LF and DH) with a few names to fill it out: Aaron Hill, Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Snider, Eric Thames and Brett Lawrie. Who will the Blue Jays feature at these positions next year? As it stands right now, many believe that the 2012 Blue Jays lineup will look something like:

SS Escobar

CF Rasmus

RF Bautista

1B Lind

3B Lawrie

DH Thames

C Arencibia

LF Snider

2B Hill

To an optimist, this lineup does have a lot of potential, but to a realist, this lineup raises a few questions. Let’s address some of these issues now.

Many Blue Jays fans are absolutely horrified that August 2^nd came and went and the Blue Jays did not call up Brett Lawrie. Lawrie has been tearing up AAA Las Vegas and many believe he should be up in the majors by now. Now we all know that Alex Anthopoulos is an aggressive general manager when it comes to trades and signings however, I think he is taking a conservative approach with this one. I believe the reason why Lawrie is not here is because of the recent play of Edwin Encarnacion. Since June, Encarnacion has been hitting .291 (158 ABs) with an OBP of .353 and an OPS of .885. During that time, he has hit 8 home runs along with 14 doubles. I believe these numbers have forced Anthopoulos to re-evaluate Encarnacion’s role and this might delay the call up of Lawrie until mid-August. If Encarnacion continues to have success at the DH position, not only do I think Lawrie will take away playing time from Eric Thames, but I believe we might see Encarnacion back as the DH for the 2012 season. All the Blue Jays have to do is pick up Encarnacion’s option.  

Now assuming the Blue Jays bring back Encarnacion or pick up a legitimate DH (preferably a right-handed DH), this forces a competition between Travis Snider and Eric Thames for the rights to plat leftfield. With the recent success of Thames, many are writing off Snider as a bust, even though he does have 5-tool potential. Snider has clearly shown us in his speed, range and arm and a glimpse of his fourth tool, power. Snider has had a rough ride in the major leagues. He was promoted to the big leagues one year early, where he struggled and was yo-yoed between Las Vegas and Toronto. The following year, he got off to a cold start but just as he was heating up, he injured his wrist and was placed on the disabled list for two and a half months. Upon his return, Cito Gaston wisely decided to platoon him with current Reds fourth outfielder Fred Lewis. Did I mention he was the lead off hitter when Lewis was not playing? Finally, in September, Snider started getting regular playing time and thus, started heating up, though the hitting barrage was cut short as the season came to an end. After such a tumultuous season, Snider managed to play in 82 games, and hit 14 home runs (evidence of power). It is imperative that Snider gets regular playing time for the rest of the season so the Blue Jays can better understand if Snider is truly going to be a great hitter or just a AAAA player.

Eric Thames is forcing Alex Anthopoulos to make this decision quickly. Thames got off to a great start in his second go round with big league team. However, Thames has cooled off since the All Star game and now has been dropped in the lineup since Rasmus was acquired. Thames features 2 tools at best, power and hitting for average. He is not a great defensively, possess a weak arm and is the slowest outfielder of five the Blue Jays have. Thames has what many scouts would say as ‘holes’ in his swing. Like Snider, he does strike out a lot, but unlike Snider, Thames does not have a ‘good-eye’ and will not draw a steady amount of walks. Is this the guy you want as your DH? Now at the moment, he is having a better year than Snider, but the most important question is what does the future hold for both Snider and Thames. The Blue Jays can afford to have both Snider and Thames in the lineup if Encarnacion does not return as the DH. If true, unless the Blue Jays do not acquire a power right-handed hitting second baseman, it would seem likely that Lawrie will hit fifth in the Blue Jays lineup. Question is, can Lawrie handle the pressure of hitting fifth and protecting Lind? Also, if Encarnacion continues his hot hitting, does it force Anthopoulos to trade Thames for a positional player such as a second baseman? The only way these questions can be answered is if all three Encarnacion, Thames and Snider get regular playing time at DH, LF and RF, respectively. Lawrie’s time will come and he will be the starting third baseman next year for the Toronto Blue Jays. I write this article to remind people that half a season does not make a career. By no mean am I saying that Thames is hitting over his head (though his .350 BABIP does) or saying that Encarnacion is going to be the next Jose Bautista. I am just writing this piece to inform you of a possible reason of why Lawrie is not up yet and what tough decisions face Alex Anthopoulos. I have complete faith that he will make the best decision this off-season.

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.

Is This Guy a Magician?

For a slideshow view of the following article, please visit http://bleacherreport.com/articles/788458-toronto-blue-jays-gm-alex-anthopoulos-a-magician

Upon the conclusion of the 2009 season, J.P. Ricciardi was relieved of his duties with the Toronto Blue Jays. Acting president Paul Beeston promoted Alex Anthopoulos to become Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. I was expecting Anthopoulos to be an interim general manager as the team searches for a veteran general manager. Upon given a chance, he quickly got to work, shuffling the deck, bringing in Dana Brown as a special assistant and hiring many area scouts. He has been the general manger for nearly three years now and he has brought the Blue Jays closer to being a contender since 2006. However, this team is not filled with aging veterans, but rather young talent with a pipeline of younger talent and prospects in the minor league system. This article will look into five major trades that Anthopoulos has pulled off.

Trade No. 5:

Philadelphia Phillies receive: RHP Roy Halladay and cash

Toronto Blue Jays receive: RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud and OF Anthony Gose (via 1B/3B Brett Wallace via OF Michael Taylor)

The minute Anthopoulos became the general manager; the first order of business he had to care of was trading away the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. Halladay, the classy person that he is, informed the team that he will not re-sign upon the conclusion of the 2010 season and would not mind being traded to help the Blue Jays in their rebuilding process. On December 15^th 2009, Anthopoulos pulled the trigger that landed the Blue Jays Drabek, d’Arnaud and Taylor for Halladay. It was clear that Anthopoulos was not interested in Taylor, as the next day, he was shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace, a 3B/1B that was originally drafted by the Blue Jays in 2005 from high school. The most impressing part of this trade is that it ended on July 29^th 2010. Upon hearing that the Houston Astros were trading Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies for prospects, Anthopoulos quickly jumped on the opportunity to acquire Anthony Gose, the prospect he was originally interested in, sending Wallace to the Astros to play first base. At the end, Anthopoulos ended up acquiring the prospects he wanted for Halladay, though it took some extra trading.

Trade No. 4:

Colorado Rockies receive: Cash

Toronto Blue Jays receive: C Miguel Olivo

Apparently the Rockies valued $ 500,000 more than a draft pick. On the eve of free agency, Anthopoulos acquired the catcher (a type B free agent), declined his contract option for 2011 and offered him arbitration. Olivo declined arbitration and became a free agent and the Blue Jays had themselves another draft pick. The Blue Jays received their reward this past June, when they drafted Dwight Smith Jr. with the 53^rd pick. Smith was ranked 34^th in Jonathan Mayo’s top 50 draft prospects. Here we see Anthopoulos thinking outside the box and his aggressiveness to acquire younger talent.

Trade No. 3:

Atlanta Braves receive: SS Alex Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins and SS Tyler Pastornicky

Toronto Blue Jays receive: LHP Jo-Jo Reyes and SS Yunel Escobar

When I read the text message reading the above trade, I almost fell off my chair in the lab I was working at. Anthopoulos is a believer in the theory of “selling high, buying low” and this was an example of that. At the time, Yunel Escobar was having a down year but the Braves were interested in acquiring a veteran shortstop in Gonzalez who was having a career year. It was known that at the time, Bobby Cox was not too keen of Escobar’s style of play and his ‘flash’. Many at the time were not keen of the deal, but I constantly reminded them that Escobar was having one bad year after posting an OPS of .837, .766 and .812 in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. His OBP in those three years were .385, .366 and .377.  Here we are in 2011, Escobar is having another great year, playing flawless defense and has matured to a new level.

Trade No. 2:

Chicago White Sox receive: RHP Jason Frasor and RHP Zach Stewart
St. Louis Cardinals receive: RHP Edwin Jackson, LHP Marc Rzepczynski, RHP Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson and 3 players to be named later or cash
Toronto Blue Jays receive: OF Colby Rasmus, RHP P.J. Walters, LHP Trever Miller, LHP Brian Tallet and IF/OF Mark Teahen

I am still trying to understand how the Cardinals gave up Colby Rasmus without receiving a top prospect from the Blue Jays. Here Anthopoulos acted as a facilitator to acquire (or should I say steal) Rasmus, a player the Blue Jays have been eying for a while. The Cardinals talked to the White Sox about a possibility of acquiring Edwin Jackson for their young centerfielder. The White Sox already have Alex Rios in centerfield, and that’s when I assume Anthopoulos decided to jump in and facilitate the trade. The act of facilitating itself deserves an award but when you steal a player like Rasmus to fill the Cardinals short term needs, you deserve a gold medal. Again, what allow this to occur is the strained relationship between Tony La Russa and the young centerfielder.

Trade No. 1:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim receive: OF Vernon Wells and $ 5 Million cash

Toronto Blue Jays receive: OF/1B Juan Rivera and RHP Frank Francisco (via C/1B Mike Napoli)

Let’s rewind five years when Wells had established himself as one of the youngest and best centerfielders in the league. Many were worried he would walk, and the Blue Jays announce they have re-signed Vernon Wells to a 7-year $ 128 Million deal. Was he overpaid? I would say slightly. If Vernon had hit the open market, he would’ve easily made $ 20 Million in salary. If you do not believe me, take a look at what players were making during the time (I’ll help you, take a look at Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito). Hence, what I’m saying is that the deal was earned by Vernon and was not a mistake by the Blue Jays.

Fast-forward to the eve of my birthday (January 21^st 2010), Vernon was traded to the Angels for Napoli and Rivera. I would not have minded if the Blue Jays received a lock of Jered Weaver’s hair in return in this deal. To this day I have no idea how Anthopoulos convinced Tony Reagins to take Wells’ contract. What puzzles me even more is that the Angels would refuse to give Crawford an average of $ 18 Million, but end up taking a struggling veteran outfielder that is overpaid. I guess we have to thank Crawford and the Red Sox for getting married earlier this offseason.  Before the deal, when I would build a potential Blue Jays lineup, I always had Wells in there as it was considered an unmovable contract.

Conclusion

What we have learned here is that Anthopoulos has a plan in building his team here in Toronto. He loves players with 5-tool potentials, such as Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus. We know he is a firm believer in “sell-high, buy-low” and that’s why I believe there is a better chance Eric Thames gets traded before Aaron Hill. But most importantly, we know he is one of most dedicated general managers in the league and studies his surroundings well. The Blue Jays would have never had Anthony Gose if it were not for him knowing of the Phillies-Astros deal. Furthermore, he pounces on situations where unease is present within a clubhouse due to player-manager rifts and he is willing to give such players a fresh start. I would not be surprised to see him pursue Gordon Beckham or even Hanley Ramirez. I am just waiting for the next star to fall out of favour with his respective team. Last year was Escobar, this year has been Rasmus and next year will be…

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached at salamathematician@gmail.com and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.