Looking for a Top 6?

Here's my 2 cents on the whole top 6 forward search by Brian Burke. Do the Leafs really need a top 6 forward considering they have forwards such as Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul, Clarke MacArthur, Nikolai Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski. They do say the best trade is the trade never made and on that note, don't the Leafs have Nazem Kadri who was sent to the Marlies? (He is on the team because Armstrong is on the IR). Kadri is a guy who could develop into a top 6 forward and his vision, speed and play-making skills can be used on one of the top 2 lines. So why would the Leafs be interested in another 'top 6 forwards' such as Bourque? What Burke is truly interested in is a No. 1 centre, though it is hard to find such players in the 'new NHL'. Burke will only be able to acquire his centre in a trade that lands him a prospect who is 1-2 years away from being 1st line NHL ready. Names that come to mind could include Kyle Turris, Derek Stepan and Brayden Schenn, though the latter might be harder to acquire. Although many were not fond of the Tim Connolly signing, (due to injury issues and high salary), he will serve as a stopgap until Burke finds that centre of his liking. Burke now has 8 NHL ready defensemen along with a few prospects (goaltenders and forwards), which can be used towards a deal. So why say you're interested in a 'top 6' instead of a 'centre'? Garners more interest towards your assets. This is probably how the Bourque rumor got leaked; Calgary was interested in one of the defenseman.

Hit me up on twitter with your thoughts: @ShakeelSalamath

Thoughts on 2012 Toronto Blue Jays Lineup: Welcome a Prince

As the Blue Jays season winds down, it is time to look forward to the offseason, where I believe Alex Anthopoulos will have some tough decisions to make. In the next few weeks, I will be writing a few blogs addressing the lineup, starting rotation, bullpen, bench and lastly minor leaguers and coaches. I believe the Blue Jays have two main priorities that they have to address within the next two years, a middle of the lineup bat and a bonafide number two starter. Now some of you are asking, Shakeel, have you been sleeping through the latter parts of the games and missing the exquisite work done by the bullpen this year blowing saves? Answer, no I have not, and I will eventually address the bullpen, but today, I shall analyse the lineup and address what element is missing.

First, let us tackle the top third of the lineup, Escobar, Thames and Bautista. I have been impressed with the job Escobar has done this year in the leadoff spot. He works the count, draws walks and hits for average. Ideally Escobar would be a second hitter in the lineup, with a ‘speedier’ version of him hitting leadoff, but the Blue Jays are fine with him leading off. In my opinion, one of Rasmus or Johnson should be hitting second next year. Rasmus possesses adequate speed, ability to work the count and draw walks and hit for average. On the other hand, when Johnson is having a good year (judging by the trend, next year should be good), he can also hit second, as he can hit for average, draw walks and has adequate speed. Though I’d rather Johnson hit lower in the lineup due to his power he does posses. Eric Thames is suited for a role lower in the lineup due to his inability to work the count and draw walks. Rounding out the top third, the Blue Jays have this hitter named Jose Bautista hitting third … and you must be living on Uranus if you have not heard of this MVP candidate. I guess this qualifies him to hit third, right?

Now I am going to jump to the bottom third of the lineup and this is how the Blue Jays should line it up. I think it will feature one of Travis Snider or Eric Thames in leftfield, J.P Arencibia catching and possibly Johnson hitting ninth and playing second base. At the moment, Thames is ahead of Snider in the depth charts, though Snider does posses more tools than Thames. I think Snider will use the offseason to re-tool his swing and come back to spring training and start there. J.P. Arencibia has impressed many of us with his power and for a catcher he is having an okay season. He is ranked sixth in terms of slugging percentage among catchers; though it would be great if can work the count and be more selective. In terms of Johnson, many people keep on saying that the Blue Jays should let Johnson walk and sign/trade for another second baseman. The market for a second baseman is really weak and I believe Johnson hitting ninth next year will not hurt the team at all.

This leaves the middle third of the lineup. I think Brett Lawrie will hit sixth and play third base and Adam Lind should hit fifth and play first base. I am a big fan of Adam Lind and he has had some bad luck this year. He had a phenomenal first two months of the season and then he became one of the coldest hitters during the past two months. I do understand his on-base percentage is now below .300, but I do believe that is partly to do with the coaching philosophy he is following (Dwayne Murphy will be addressed another day). I also believe that Lind should have never hit fourth this year as he is a typical fifth hitter. Lind has had an interesting year to say the least. So who should be hitting fourth you ask? Prince Fielder and here comes the explanation.

One of the most frustrating stat this season is the amount of time Jose Bautista was intentionally walked so opposing pitchers could face the struggling Lind. What Fielder would bring to the lineup as a fourth hitter is power and his ability to drive in runs. With hitters like Escobar, Rasmus and Bautista htting in front of him, (all have the ability to get on base), Fielder could be crucial in driving in runs with runners in scoring position, a stat with which the Blue Jays have struggled with. How often does a bat like Fielder become available? The last big bat that was available was Mark Teixiera in 2008. If the Blue Jays pass on this opportunity, they might not be able to acquire the ‘big bat’ they are looking for when they are ready to compete. After all, Fielder will take them a huge step forward towards competing in the AL East. Now there are many reasonable arguments that are brought up when I debate the Fielder issue with others. I am going to list a few of them and then address these issues:

·      Fielder will command a large amount of money

·      Fielder will cost a draft pick

·      Fielder is not a great fielder at first

The money issue always creep up when I discuss Fielder. Yes he will cost a large amount of money but let us clear up a few things. Firstly, the Yankees and Red Sox already have locked up Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez as their first baseman, respectively. In terms of DH, the Yankees will most likely feature Jesus Montero and the Red Sox do have David Ortiz (though Red Sox could let Ortiz go in favour of Fielder and Yankees could trade Montero and sign Fielder). Both teams have bigger issues to address in the off-season, namely pitching. In addition, Fielder is not going to be the only big name bat on the market, as there is also Albert Pujols. Many say Fielder will ask for the same amount of money as Teixiera did, but one must remember that Teixeira is a gold-glove, athletic first baseman whereas Fielder is all bat. Thus Fielder would be playing as a designated hitter and play sparingly at first base. Fielder himself was quoted as saying that he wouldn’t mind playing as a designated hitter next year (as per John Harper of the New York Daily News). Further to the point, I can only name the Orioles, Rangers, Brewers, Giants, potentially the Angels and possibly the Cardinals as being interested in the services of Fielder. Would signing Fielder cost the Blue Jays their first round pick? Not necessarily as if the Blue Jays finish in the bottom half of the standings, their pick will be protected (as they will keep their pick while signing a Type A free agent as in Fielder; they will lose their second round pick). At the moment, the Jays are on the cusp of having a protected pick.

Now there are others who say the Blue Jays can acquire their first baseman/designated hitter via a trade and a name that constantly gets bounced around is Joey Votto, a native of Toronto. This is a possibility but you can kiss good-bye to two (or three) of the Blue Jays current top prospects, a move nearly impossible with Anthopoulos at the helm. I believe Anthopoulos values these prospects more than the money Fielder will command. Am I worried about the money he will command, not really, I am more worried about the length of the contract. I know many Blue Jays fans are caught up with the rebuilding process that Anthopoulos has initiated. Don’t quote me wrong, he has done a great job but the goal is not to build the best minor league system, but rather win a championship. Prince Fielder will be a great addition to the lineup and will help this team get over the hump and compete for years to come. So what would my 2012 Toronto Blue Jays lineup look like you ask?

SS – Yunel Escobar

CF – Colby Rasmus

RF – Jose Bautista

DH – Prince Fielder

1B – Adam Lind

3B – Brett Lawrie

LF – Travis Snider/Eric Thames/(Edwin Encarnacion)

C – J.P. Arencibia

2B – Kelly Johnson

In my next blog, I will focus in on the starting pitching and look at the candidates that might fill the number two to number five spots. Also, I will share my view on the Blue Jays and the potential of acquiring a number two starter. Many are probably asking why Encarnacion was not mentioned at all in this post, though news is coming out that Encarnacion might see playing time in leftfield near then of the season. Encarnacion has been one of the hottest hitters this season post All-Star break. The options on him are relatively cheap and if he does play left field next year, his versatility will come in handy during injuries with his abilities to play first and third base. If they do decide to let him start in leftfield next year, They can move Johnson to eighth and Arencibia to ninth to balance out a righty-lefty lineup, or place a right-handed bat in between Lind and Fielder (preferably Encarnacion).

Hit me up on twitter with your thoughts: @ShakeelSalamath

Brett Lawrie: A Costly Promotion.

Well Blue Jays fans, he will make his MLB and Blue Jays debut tomorrow. The 21-year old third baseman, a native of Canada has been tearing up AAA Las Vegas this year. He was hitting .353/.415/.661 with 18 home runs and 24 doubles in only 69 games. Keep in mind, Lawrie was hitting in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, though. His defense at third has shown signs of improvement and last week I saw him make a few good plays a third. A lot of pressure has been put on Lawrie, especially since Jayson Nix and Edwin Encarnacion (earlier in the year) were playing horrible defense at third and were hitting below .200 combined. There has been a lot of expectations on this kid (am I allowed to call him kid, he is four days older than me?) and please do not expect him to be the savior. I expect him to hit 7^th in the lineup and play a decent third base. I want to make it clear that I am absolutely ecstatic to see him get the call and wish him the best of luck. I am glad the Blue Jays did not rush him, as ironically the demoted player in this transaction was rushed to the big leagues.

On the flipside, the promotion cost Travis Snider his job. Snider has been demoted back to AAA nearly a month after his promotion. It’s disappointing to see him get such a short leash, as I thought he would have been here until the end of the season so the Blue Jays get a better look at him. Snider has not played more than 2 months in the big leagues without being disrupted by a demotion or an injury. Now as much as Snider has struggled lately, Eric Thames has been as bad lately, though his great start masks his recent struggles. Travis Snider has been 6 for his last 46 but Thames is currently 8 for his last 46. Since the All Star game, Eric Thames has been hitting .234/.271/.406.

Since the second call up of Thames, many have written off Snider as a bust, even though many scouts still think he does have 5-tool potential. Snider has clearly shown us in his speed, range and arm and a glimpse of his fourth tool, power. Snider has had a rough ride in the major leagues. People must remember that Snider was drafted in 2006 out of high school, not college. If he had decided to go to college, he would have been drafted in 2009, that’s a year after Eric Thames (drafted in 2008). If Snider would have been drafted in 2009, he would have probably made his major league debut in 2011, thus it is normal to see him struggling. To make matters worse, Snider’s route to the MLB has not been easy. He was promoted to the big leagues one year early, where he struggled and was yo-yoed between Las Vegas and Toronto. The following year, he got off to a cold start but just as he was heating up, he injured his wrist and was placed on the disabled list for two and a half months. Upon his return, Cito Gaston wisely decided to platoon him with current Reds fourth outfielder Fred Lewis. Did I mention he was the lead off hitter when Lewis was not playing? Finally, in September, Snider started getting regular playing time and thus, started heating up, though the hitting barrage was cut short as the season came to an end. After such a tumultuous season, Snider managed to play in 82 games, and hit 14 home runs (evidence of power). It is imperative that Snider gets regular playing time for the rest of the season so the Blue Jays can better understand if Snider is truly going to be a great hitter or just a AAAA player. It is unfair to pull the plug on the guy after one month. After all, Snider has always been a slow starter as it took him a month and a half to finally heat up in 2010. 

Eric Thames got off to a great start in his second go round with big league team. However, Thames has cooled off since the All Star game and now has been dropped in the lineup since Rasmus was acquired. Thames features 2 tools at best, power and hitting for average. He is not a great defensively, possess a weak arm and is the slowest outfielder of five the Blue Jays have. Thames has what many scouts would say as ‘holes’ in his swing as he strikes out too many times and does not compensate the fact by drawing a steady diet of walks.

I was annoyed by the demotion of Snider, but the reasoning was even more hysterical. Alex Anthopoulos suggested that the demotion was going to be in between Thames or Snider and if in ten days Thames continues to struggles, he will be demoted to AAA Las Vegas and Snider will be back up. So why could not the Blue Jays wait one week to make a decision and prevent Snider form being demoted in the first place? It’s not like the team is competing for a playoff spot and is dire need of a third baseman. Jose Bautista has done a great job filling in at third and it would have given the Blue Jays a week to observe Thames’ play to determine if he or Snider merits a demotion. Was it because Anthopoulos wanted Lawrie to make his debut on the road? Anthopoulos has done some great things while he has been the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays (click here for evidence), but this move is a real head-scratcher. If he really wanted Lawrie to be up, I would have demoted Thames instead of Snider. The Blue Jays are running out of time on Snider, as he will be out of options next year. The Blue Jays have plenty of time to determine what Thames might become, though many scouts are not sold on him, too. I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays trade Snider in the off-season, though it would not be the wisest option considering he is at his lowest value.

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached at salamathematician@gmail.com and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.

Future Lineup?

Last week, the Blue Jays acquired a big piece that helps them toward their rebuild to a championship team. The addition of Colby Rasmus will now force a current Blue Jay to lose his job. It can be concluded that Yunel Escobar, Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia have secured their spots in the lineup at SS, CF, RF, 1B and C respectively. That leaves four other spots (2B, 3B, LF and DH) with a few names to fill it out: Aaron Hill, Edwin Encarnacion, Travis Snider, Eric Thames and Brett Lawrie. Who will the Blue Jays feature at these positions next year? As it stands right now, many believe that the 2012 Blue Jays lineup will look something like:

SS Escobar

CF Rasmus

RF Bautista

1B Lind

3B Lawrie

DH Thames

C Arencibia

LF Snider

2B Hill

To an optimist, this lineup does have a lot of potential, but to a realist, this lineup raises a few questions. Let’s address some of these issues now.

Many Blue Jays fans are absolutely horrified that August 2^nd came and went and the Blue Jays did not call up Brett Lawrie. Lawrie has been tearing up AAA Las Vegas and many believe he should be up in the majors by now. Now we all know that Alex Anthopoulos is an aggressive general manager when it comes to trades and signings however, I think he is taking a conservative approach with this one. I believe the reason why Lawrie is not here is because of the recent play of Edwin Encarnacion. Since June, Encarnacion has been hitting .291 (158 ABs) with an OBP of .353 and an OPS of .885. During that time, he has hit 8 home runs along with 14 doubles. I believe these numbers have forced Anthopoulos to re-evaluate Encarnacion’s role and this might delay the call up of Lawrie until mid-August. If Encarnacion continues to have success at the DH position, not only do I think Lawrie will take away playing time from Eric Thames, but I believe we might see Encarnacion back as the DH for the 2012 season. All the Blue Jays have to do is pick up Encarnacion’s option.  

Now assuming the Blue Jays bring back Encarnacion or pick up a legitimate DH (preferably a right-handed DH), this forces a competition between Travis Snider and Eric Thames for the rights to plat leftfield. With the recent success of Thames, many are writing off Snider as a bust, even though he does have 5-tool potential. Snider has clearly shown us in his speed, range and arm and a glimpse of his fourth tool, power. Snider has had a rough ride in the major leagues. He was promoted to the big leagues one year early, where he struggled and was yo-yoed between Las Vegas and Toronto. The following year, he got off to a cold start but just as he was heating up, he injured his wrist and was placed on the disabled list for two and a half months. Upon his return, Cito Gaston wisely decided to platoon him with current Reds fourth outfielder Fred Lewis. Did I mention he was the lead off hitter when Lewis was not playing? Finally, in September, Snider started getting regular playing time and thus, started heating up, though the hitting barrage was cut short as the season came to an end. After such a tumultuous season, Snider managed to play in 82 games, and hit 14 home runs (evidence of power). It is imperative that Snider gets regular playing time for the rest of the season so the Blue Jays can better understand if Snider is truly going to be a great hitter or just a AAAA player.

Eric Thames is forcing Alex Anthopoulos to make this decision quickly. Thames got off to a great start in his second go round with big league team. However, Thames has cooled off since the All Star game and now has been dropped in the lineup since Rasmus was acquired. Thames features 2 tools at best, power and hitting for average. He is not a great defensively, possess a weak arm and is the slowest outfielder of five the Blue Jays have. Thames has what many scouts would say as ‘holes’ in his swing. Like Snider, he does strike out a lot, but unlike Snider, Thames does not have a ‘good-eye’ and will not draw a steady amount of walks. Is this the guy you want as your DH? Now at the moment, he is having a better year than Snider, but the most important question is what does the future hold for both Snider and Thames. The Blue Jays can afford to have both Snider and Thames in the lineup if Encarnacion does not return as the DH. If true, unless the Blue Jays do not acquire a power right-handed hitting second baseman, it would seem likely that Lawrie will hit fifth in the Blue Jays lineup. Question is, can Lawrie handle the pressure of hitting fifth and protecting Lind? Also, if Encarnacion continues his hot hitting, does it force Anthopoulos to trade Thames for a positional player such as a second baseman? The only way these questions can be answered is if all three Encarnacion, Thames and Snider get regular playing time at DH, LF and RF, respectively. Lawrie’s time will come and he will be the starting third baseman next year for the Toronto Blue Jays. I write this article to remind people that half a season does not make a career. By no mean am I saying that Thames is hitting over his head (though his .350 BABIP does) or saying that Encarnacion is going to be the next Jose Bautista. I am just writing this piece to inform you of a possible reason of why Lawrie is not up yet and what tough decisions face Alex Anthopoulos. I have complete faith that he will make the best decision this off-season.

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.

Is This Guy a Magician?

For a slideshow view of the following article, please visit http://bleacherreport.com/articles/788458-toronto-blue-jays-gm-alex-anthopoulos-a-magician

Upon the conclusion of the 2009 season, J.P. Ricciardi was relieved of his duties with the Toronto Blue Jays. Acting president Paul Beeston promoted Alex Anthopoulos to become Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations and General Manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. I was expecting Anthopoulos to be an interim general manager as the team searches for a veteran general manager. Upon given a chance, he quickly got to work, shuffling the deck, bringing in Dana Brown as a special assistant and hiring many area scouts. He has been the general manger for nearly three years now and he has brought the Blue Jays closer to being a contender since 2006. However, this team is not filled with aging veterans, but rather young talent with a pipeline of younger talent and prospects in the minor league system. This article will look into five major trades that Anthopoulos has pulled off.

Trade No. 5:

Philadelphia Phillies receive: RHP Roy Halladay and cash

Toronto Blue Jays receive: RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud and OF Anthony Gose (via 1B/3B Brett Wallace via OF Michael Taylor)

The minute Anthopoulos became the general manager; the first order of business he had to care of was trading away the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. Halladay, the classy person that he is, informed the team that he will not re-sign upon the conclusion of the 2010 season and would not mind being traded to help the Blue Jays in their rebuilding process. On December 15^th 2009, Anthopoulos pulled the trigger that landed the Blue Jays Drabek, d’Arnaud and Taylor for Halladay. It was clear that Anthopoulos was not interested in Taylor, as the next day, he was shipped to Oakland for Brett Wallace, a 3B/1B that was originally drafted by the Blue Jays in 2005 from high school. The most impressing part of this trade is that it ended on July 29^th 2010. Upon hearing that the Houston Astros were trading Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies for prospects, Anthopoulos quickly jumped on the opportunity to acquire Anthony Gose, the prospect he was originally interested in, sending Wallace to the Astros to play first base. At the end, Anthopoulos ended up acquiring the prospects he wanted for Halladay, though it took some extra trading.

Trade No. 4:

Colorado Rockies receive: Cash

Toronto Blue Jays receive: C Miguel Olivo

Apparently the Rockies valued $ 500,000 more than a draft pick. On the eve of free agency, Anthopoulos acquired the catcher (a type B free agent), declined his contract option for 2011 and offered him arbitration. Olivo declined arbitration and became a free agent and the Blue Jays had themselves another draft pick. The Blue Jays received their reward this past June, when they drafted Dwight Smith Jr. with the 53^rd pick. Smith was ranked 34^th in Jonathan Mayo’s top 50 draft prospects. Here we see Anthopoulos thinking outside the box and his aggressiveness to acquire younger talent.

Trade No. 3:

Atlanta Braves receive: SS Alex Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins and SS Tyler Pastornicky

Toronto Blue Jays receive: LHP Jo-Jo Reyes and SS Yunel Escobar

When I read the text message reading the above trade, I almost fell off my chair in the lab I was working at. Anthopoulos is a believer in the theory of “selling high, buying low” and this was an example of that. At the time, Yunel Escobar was having a down year but the Braves were interested in acquiring a veteran shortstop in Gonzalez who was having a career year. It was known that at the time, Bobby Cox was not too keen of Escobar’s style of play and his ‘flash’. Many at the time were not keen of the deal, but I constantly reminded them that Escobar was having one bad year after posting an OPS of .837, .766 and .812 in 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively. His OBP in those three years were .385, .366 and .377.  Here we are in 2011, Escobar is having another great year, playing flawless defense and has matured to a new level.

Trade No. 2:

Chicago White Sox receive: RHP Jason Frasor and RHP Zach Stewart
St. Louis Cardinals receive: RHP Edwin Jackson, LHP Marc Rzepczynski, RHP Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson and 3 players to be named later or cash
Toronto Blue Jays receive: OF Colby Rasmus, RHP P.J. Walters, LHP Trever Miller, LHP Brian Tallet and IF/OF Mark Teahen

I am still trying to understand how the Cardinals gave up Colby Rasmus without receiving a top prospect from the Blue Jays. Here Anthopoulos acted as a facilitator to acquire (or should I say steal) Rasmus, a player the Blue Jays have been eying for a while. The Cardinals talked to the White Sox about a possibility of acquiring Edwin Jackson for their young centerfielder. The White Sox already have Alex Rios in centerfield, and that’s when I assume Anthopoulos decided to jump in and facilitate the trade. The act of facilitating itself deserves an award but when you steal a player like Rasmus to fill the Cardinals short term needs, you deserve a gold medal. Again, what allow this to occur is the strained relationship between Tony La Russa and the young centerfielder.

Trade No. 1:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim receive: OF Vernon Wells and $ 5 Million cash

Toronto Blue Jays receive: OF/1B Juan Rivera and RHP Frank Francisco (via C/1B Mike Napoli)

Let’s rewind five years when Wells had established himself as one of the youngest and best centerfielders in the league. Many were worried he would walk, and the Blue Jays announce they have re-signed Vernon Wells to a 7-year $ 128 Million deal. Was he overpaid? I would say slightly. If Vernon had hit the open market, he would’ve easily made $ 20 Million in salary. If you do not believe me, take a look at what players were making during the time (I’ll help you, take a look at Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito). Hence, what I’m saying is that the deal was earned by Vernon and was not a mistake by the Blue Jays.

Fast-forward to the eve of my birthday (January 21^st 2010), Vernon was traded to the Angels for Napoli and Rivera. I would not have minded if the Blue Jays received a lock of Jered Weaver’s hair in return in this deal. To this day I have no idea how Anthopoulos convinced Tony Reagins to take Wells’ contract. What puzzles me even more is that the Angels would refuse to give Crawford an average of $ 18 Million, but end up taking a struggling veteran outfielder that is overpaid. I guess we have to thank Crawford and the Red Sox for getting married earlier this offseason.  Before the deal, when I would build a potential Blue Jays lineup, I always had Wells in there as it was considered an unmovable contract.

Conclusion

What we have learned here is that Anthopoulos has a plan in building his team here in Toronto. He loves players with 5-tool potentials, such as Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus. We know he is a firm believer in “sell-high, buy-low” and that’s why I believe there is a better chance Eric Thames gets traded before Aaron Hill. But most importantly, we know he is one of most dedicated general managers in the league and studies his surroundings well. The Blue Jays would have never had Anthony Gose if it were not for him knowing of the Phillies-Astros deal. Furthermore, he pounces on situations where unease is present within a clubhouse due to player-manager rifts and he is willing to give such players a fresh start. I would not be surprised to see him pursue Gordon Beckham or even Hanley Ramirez. I am just waiting for the next star to fall out of favour with his respective team. Last year was Escobar, this year has been Rasmus and next year will be…

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached at salamathematician@gmail.com and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.

Merry Rasmus?

Early this morning (2 AM EST), I read the following rumour: Jason Frasor and prospect for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen. I thought, another rumour, and why do we need those two guys. Fast-forward 10 hours when I roll out of bed from a tweet on my phone. It all made sense why. The Blue Jays were working on the framework that would send Edwin Jackson to the St. Louis Cardinals for Colby Rasmus. The Blue Jays were eying Rasmus for a while and earlier this week the Cardinals talked to the White Sox about a possibility of acquiring Edwin Jackson for their young centerfielder. The White Sox already have Alex Rios in centerfield, and that’s when I assume Anthopoulos decided to jump in and facilitate the trade. 

Trade:

Chicago White Sox acquire: Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart
St. Louis Cardinals acquire: Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson and 3 players to be named later or cash
Toronto Blue Jays acquire: Colby Rasmus, P.J. Walters, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet and Mark Teahen

Thoughts on White Sox – Blue Jays trade

The Blue Jays sent RP Jason Frasor and SP/RP Zach Stewart to the White Sox for IF/OF Mark Teahen and SP Edwin Jackson. I will address the Edwin Jackson part of the deal in the Thoughts on the Cardinals – Blue Jays trade section. Toronto was forced to take Mark Teahen from the White Sox to relieve the money issues that the White Sox have put themselves into by signing Adam Dunn and oh yeah, taking Alex Rios from the Jays. Now the Blue Jays did give up Zach Stewart here, but remember its not Deck McGuire or Henderson Alvarez. People need to remember that Stewart is 25 years old and is having a mediocre year at AA New Hampshire. I can see the White Sox converting him to a reliever and adding him to their struggling bullpen. I do believe that Stewart would have eventually wound up in the bullpen, potentially as a setup man. Teahen, the other piece has struggled mightily since 2007 and is under contract until the end of the 2012. He will replace Patterson on the bench for the remainder of the year, and can be used sparingly as a pinch-hitter and as a backup third baseman and outfielder (and in a real emergency, a backup second baseman). In essence, the Blue Jays gave up two relievers for Jackson and Teahen. It is possible that the White Sox were financially restraint and this deal could allow them to make another move, now that Teahen (~ $ 5M) has been moved.

Thoughts on Cardinals – Blue Jays trade

Now this is the most important part of the deal. I am absolutely stunned to what the Jays gave up to get Colby Rasmus. The Blue Jays traded the recently acquired SP Edwin Jackson, RP Octavio Dotel, RP Marc Rzepczynski and OF Corey Patterson for CF Colby Rasmus, RP PJ Walters RP Brian Tallet (I guess Gaston was working with Anthopoulos) and RP Trever Miller. For those of you who are not aware, Rasmus was a top 10 MLB prospect pre-2009 (along with Snider). Snider and Rasmus are really similar, both are young outfielders with 5-tool potentials. Unlike Snider who has struggled in the majors, Rasmus posted some great numbers last year: .276/.361/.498 (OPS: .859) with 23 HRs and 28 doubles. In addition, Rasmus is a player who is not in AA or AAA but is a major league talent. It looks like the Cardinals are really thinking in the short-term with this deal. They acquire Edwin Jackson, a pitcher that might walk at the end of the year, Octavio Dotel, another pitcher that can walk at the end of the year along with Corey Patterson aka Clown360. In fact, five years down the road, the only name that might be remembered in this deal would be Marc Rzepczynski and Colby Rasmus. All the Cardinals did here, is acquire a right-handed specialist, a left-handed specialist, a fifth outfielder and a No. 3 starter.

What the Blue Jays got?

Along with Colby Rasmus, the Blue Jays acquired P.J. Walters, along with Trever Miller and Brian Tallet. Even if the Blue Jays go ahead and release the latter two guys, they still won this deal. It is expected that Miller would be flipped to the White Sox and Brad Mills will be promoted to the majors as a reliever. I honestly do not mind Brad Mills as a member of the bullpen and to be used as a LOOGY (left-handed specialist). I am not sold on Brad Mills as a starter, but I can see him having success against left-handed hitters. I believe that Tallet might be blocking a roster spot for a pitcher like Danny Farquhar (replacing Dotel) or Luis Perez (replacing Rzepczynski). Farquhar is a side-arm right-handed reliever with the Las Vegas 51s, who I think can replace Octavio Dotel’s role. Most of Blue Jays fans are familiar with Luis Perez, though I would rather see him as situational left-hander. The third pitcher, PJ Walters is a reliever who was used as a starter in the minors. He doesn’t have over-powering stuff, but he has put up some decent numbers in the minors and he will now be given a shot in the bullpen. Although, Zach Stewart was ranked as a top prospect coming into the year, I think the biggest lost for the Blue Jays is Marc Rzepczynski. Like I said before, I think Stewart could have been a setup man for the Blue Jays, though the Jays have plenty of arms that one day, might fill that role. Marc Rzepczynski did a fabulous job this year as late-inning setup man and situational lefthander. It is difficult to find pitchers like him, but maybe Luis Perez can fill that role, given the opportunity. One cannot complain here, as the Blue Jays essentially traded 4 relievers, 2 that are free agents at the end of the year for a star like Colby Rasmus. Imagine if the Blue Jays traded away Travis Snider for Jesse Crain, Matt Thornton, Brian Bruney, Sergio Santos and Juan Pierre. I don’t believe Anthopoulos is done dealing, I think he might look into adding a piece for the bullpen, move Encarnacion and/or Teahen or even trade Frank Francisco, Jo-Jo Reyes, Shawn Camp and Jon Rauch for Ubaldo Jimenez (Chill guys, I’m joking with the last one!).

I did promise a blog about Kyle Drabek and what our bullpen might look like next year. Anthopoulos has obviously forced me to re-think about how the bullpen will look like, but those blogs are coming. He also took a different approach with the relievers than I thought (Click here for What I thought would happen), though I did mention that he might ‘prove me wrong’. Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached at salamathematician@gmail.com and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.

Travis d’Arnaud or J.P. Arencibia?

It is not easy to find many well-rounded major league catchers these days that can both call a great game and do some damage with the bat. Few that come to mind includes Brian McCann, Joe Mauer, Alex Avila, Carlos Santana and Miguel Montero. Catching is a very demanding position as it requires one to be the on-field ‘captain’ by controlling the running game and the game-calling. Many teams including the Yankees and Red Sox do not have a top tier catcher yet. Going into the 2011 season, the Toronto Blue Jays were blessed to have two catchers in their top ten prospects list, J.P. Arencibia and Travis d’Arnaud.

Both of these catchers come from a common origin, the 2007 first-year player draft. J.P. Arencibia was drafted 21^st overall by the Toronto Blue Jays out of the University of Tennessee. With the 37^th pick, the Philadelphia Phillies went with Travis d’Arnaud, a high school pick from Lakewood High School, one slot before the Blue Jays picked left-handed pitcher Brett Cecil. It was believed that the Blue Jays were deeply interested in d’Arnaud’s potential and were going to pick him with the 38^th pick and potentially move Arencibia to first base. Fast-forward two years and the Blue Jays acquire Travis d’Arnaud in a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies along with Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor for Roy Halladay. With two young studs at the position, who will actually be the starting catcher for the Toronto Blue Jays?

J.P. Arencibia made his major league debut last year against the Tampa Bay Rays and it was a historical one. He launched the first pitch he saw over the left field wall for a homerun. He later singled and doubled and capped the day with a homerun to right field (I would have stopped at third base to complete the cycle). That game showed us a lot about Arencibia and his ability to hit the ball for power. Arencibia has entered into a slump recently, but I truly believe he has the ability to become a catcher that can lead the position in homeruns one day. He possesses raw power, but lacks plate discipline and is too aggressive. This can be proven by a career .507 slugging percentage in the minors, though only a .319 on-base percentage and 357 strikeouts. In order for him to become a better offensive catcher and a middle of the lineup threat, he will need to improve on his plate discipline. Defensively, Arencibia is very athletic and does have a good arm, though he has always struggled with blocking pitches in the dirt. In his minor league career, Arencibia threw out close to 30% of base thieves, though charged with 60 passed balls in 357 games.

On the other hand, Travis d’Arnaud is quietly putting up some great numbers with AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats. Before this year, many were not sold on d’Arnaud due to his injuries and his struggles at the plate. However, one needs to remember that d’Arnaud is a high school pick and the numbers from the first three years of professional baseball must be taken with a grain of salt. If he had chosen to go to college, he would have been drafted in 2010 as a high first rounder and thus his numbers post-2010 are much more significant than those of pre-2010. And what exactly are those post-2010 numbers like? As of today, d’Arnaud is hitting .320, with an on-base percentage of .389 and a slugging percentage of .538, yielding an OPS of .927. He currently has 12 homeruns along with 24 doubles and 42 RBIs. His game is not one dimensional, but rather he is also great defensively. He has great ‘game-calling’ abilities as scouts would say but defensively, he has done a great job behind the plate and he is also armed with a plus arm. Sal Fasano, manager of the Fisher Cats has raved about d’Arnaud’s defensive abilities, and continues to talk about his progression in that aspect of the game.

So who could be the better catcher? In my opinion, I see d’Arnaud developing to become a better overall player at the position, in comparison to Arencibia. Offensively, d’Arnaud has the ability to work the count, hit for a higher average and hit for decent power. I truly believe that Arencibia can hit for more power than d’Arnaud, though. Defensively, d’Arnaud is more equipped with tools to help him behind the plate, when compared to Arencibia. When I say that I would rather have d’Arnaud be the future catcher of the Blue Jays over Arencibia, I say that with all the respect to Arencibia. It must be made clear that the Blue Jays just happen to be blessed with two great catchers and I am the first to say that I can see twenty-five other major league teams lining up for the services of Arencibia if he were traded. I can see d’Arnaud posting numbers such as .277/.340/.450 averaging 22 homeruns and 35 doubles. On the other hand, I can see Arencibia posting numbers such as .260/.315/.480 averaging 27 homeruns and 30 doubles. Could it be possible that the Blue Jays convert Arencibia to a first baseman to split time with Adam Lind? Or they might find a designated hitter/first baseman that can put up more offensive numbers than Arencibia and they see what they can get for him on the market. Whatever Anthopoulos decides to do, one thing is certain, the Blue Jays are blessed with two young catchers.   

Feel free to chime in and share your thoughts, I can be reached at salamathematician@gmail.com and followed at @ShakeelSalamath on twitter.